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Address: Alexandra Solzhenitsyna str. (former B. Kommunisticheskaya str.), 40/14, bld. 1, Moscow, 109004, Russian Federation
Tel: 7 495 911-9778
Tel/fax: 7 495 911-9277
E-mail:
issa@umail.ru; info@isoa.ru

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1 (1-2010)
CHINA’S RISE IN THE CONTEXT OF THE INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
AUTHORS: Komarov Pavel

1. As the majority of experts believe, the People’s Republic of China, with its phenomenal economic growth rates (average about 9% a year) for more than 30 years, that none world economic crisis seems able to bridle, is capable to be a match to the USA, according to the absolute indicators of economic development, in the nearest future. The PRC will inevitably supplement strengthening its potential with the cardinal change of the country’s geopolitical and a geo-economic position, which fact - while the Communistic rhetoric and the Communist Party monopoly for the political power still preserved - naturally, causes diverse reaction in the world. Usually, the greatest dangers are seen in escalating China’s military potential, increasing demand for energy, and in dumping the Chinese goods in the world markets.
2. Some special attention is to be paid to Russia’s place in China’s ‘great strategy’ in the coming years. Despite Russia’s obvious backlog from China in the level of economic development, despite the fact that the economic cooperation, largely, has the character of interrelations in energy branch, it is necessary to note the extremely cautious and respectful attitude on the part of Chinese analysts and the PRC leadership to Russia which gradually regains its lost-before positions in the international system.
3. At the same time, China’s rise, by all means, opens improbable, really unprecedented possibilities before us. Provided, there is a real, not just declared strategic partnership between our countries, Russia might as well be harmoniously included into the prompt economic growth algorithm generated in the APR, to overcome accruing technological backlog and, finally, to solve inveterate problems of economic rise of Siberia and the Far East, to stop depopulation of eastern part of the country and to provide for our security in the Asian direction in the face of new challenges and threats.

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2 (1-2010)
WILL RUSSIA JOIN THE WORLD LEADERS FIVE?
AUTHORS: Kortunov Sergey

1. The state is likely to be an adequate player in technological modernizing, just in case it will prove itself as the spiritual entity, rather than the bureaucratic mechanism. In other words, the state should change and become appropriate to the trends of postindustrial transformation of the society to perform its mission. Advancement of the democracy and the political support of the positive creative forces are to assist their main functions - to percept the world culture and to assert the national self-expression in the world community.
2. It is agreeable, that the Strategy-2020 main vector has been set correctly: the Russia’s modernization scenario key component is the steadfast transition to the innovative type of development, to the ‘economy of knowledge’. At the same time, the transition to the innovative strategy, certainly, cannot be a mere repetition of the Strategy-2020, worked out by the government before the crisis, the latter has proved that no innovative economy can be build on the basis of former fallacious economic policy. To build the innovative economy is to turn the intellect, the man’s creative potential into the leading factor of the economic growth and national competitiveness, as well as to substantially increase the efficiency of using the natural resources and production capital.
3. The major problems of the transition to the innovative type of development are the people themselves and the nature of their productive activities. So, the Russian reforms are not expected to bring in miracles, until the upper steps of the social hierarchy ladder will be occupied by positive creative forces capable to generate an innovative vector of the country’s development and to make the rest of the society follow their lead. The chief problem of the national modernization is the lack of competent national elite being the subject of such modernization.

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