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№33 (3-2008) "VESTNIK ANALITIKI":

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CONTENTS

EDITOR’S PAGE
     Vagif Guseynov
POLITICS
     Valery Buyanov. “The Russian world” as a global project
     Alexander Tsipko. Bashful liberals’ games
     Comments on the «Democracy: Developing the Russian Model» Report
     «500 words». Foreign correspondents speak about their life and work in Russia
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
     Andrey Suzdaltsev. The Russian-Georgian crisis (January-August 2008)
     Georgy Mirsky. Islamism: the third stage of the decolonization missile?
     Yevgeny Kanayev. The prevention of terror threat in the South Chinese sea: prospects of the Russian participation
     Eldar Kasayev. The Iraqi fuel & energy complex (FEC) as a small ‘Instability Island’ for the Russian investments
     Elena Komleva. The arctic energy: partnership of Russia, Germany and the Europe
IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION
     Alexander Dougin. The economic security in the post-Soviet space
GEOPOLITICS
     Rasim Agayev (Azerbaijan). The Eurasian discourse of the Russian geopolitics
     Vladimir Dergachev (Ukraine). Geopolitical transformation of the Crimea
THE ISSUE MAIN TOPIC:
     National idea
     Pavel Gurevich. The phenomenon’s seamy side
ECONOMICS
     Maxim Bratersky. The political activities of the international companies
     Vladimir Pan’kov. Russia and WTO
DEDUT
     Askar Valitov. Export of democracy: the help or the threat?
ROUND TABLE
     Defects and resources of social management
PUBLICATIONS
     Religion in our life

     A human being before God
     Gennady Bocharov converses with Metropolitan Yuvenaly of Krutitsy and Kolomna 
     Rasim Agayev (Azerbaijan). Mission in Tabriz
     Secrets of history
     Vladimir Roschupkin. Impact across New York
NOTES ON A BOOK'S MARGINS
     Elvira Spirova. The future as the surprise.
     On the book Progress: The History of the Idea by Robert Nisbet. M., 2008.
     Peter Tsvetov.The general and particular in the world practicing federalism
     On the book Federalism: An Introduction by George Anderson. Oxford University Press, 2008, 96 pp.
Reviews
     Vagif Guseynov. On the book The Socio-Political Processes in the Mid-East Arab countries (the second half of the 20th - the beginning of the 21st centuries) by Vladimir Akhmedov.
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EDITOR’S PAGE:

1. War in South Ossetia forces to reconsider both the Russian policy union and developments of relations with the Post-Soviet countries. Any more the first year experts speak about negative tendencies in the CIS. Whether Russia has made all possible for Commonwealth strengthening? I am afraid that is not present. It is Now obvious that we dealt not simply with political statements and митинговыми declarations from outside heads of some the Commonwealth countries, and with the thought over and developed system of measures – obviously there were statements of our military men that took part in fighting calculations of the Georgian forces of air defence experts from the CIS countries.
2. Operation of Russia on compulsion to the world became an occasion to the USA and their East Europe associates to intensify procedure of the introduction of Georgia and Ukraine in the NATO. Anyway, their chances in December to receive the desired invitation in the block have increased. All it compels Russia to correct a line of conduct in relations with an alliance as a whole. First precautionary "call" from our party was the decision of the Minister of Defence of Russia to interrupt all contacts to the NATO on a military line. Probably, the further steps to this direction are thought over also.


Guseinov Vagif
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“THE RUSSIAN WORLD” AS A GLOBAL PROJECT:

1. Russia would have to shoot ahead as a leader of socio-economic and intellectual progress. The ambitious declarations delivered by the two heads of the state in succession, have to be backed and provided for by organizational, financial, info-propagandistic and other measures.
2. Compatriot diasporas scattered all over the world play an important role in building up the contemporary ‘Russian World’. To coordinate - and more so to unite - the efforts of the mother-country and the communities overseas means to give the Russian World some new vital impulse. Russia could get the capital in the form of investments and innovative technologies from the Russian abroad, especially from its European and American habitats, also the compatriots could lobby the Russian interests in the foreign countries, including weakening NATO’s political pressure upon the Russian Federation.
3. The Russian World is a way to unify people, to renew the Russian identity. While renewing, we have something to lose and also something to find. A greater openness and emancipation in the face of the outer world, rather than isolation, the growth of entrepreneurship, more weight of such qualities as material success and individual freedom among the national values, self-supporting and gradual displacing paternalistic expectations - these and other new dimensions of the identity and mentality help to faster involve the Russians and their country in the globalizing world.
4. The Russian World is hoped not to be lost among the civilizations, nations and peoples, and be able to take leading positions at a new convolution of the civilization development of the mankind. But that would depend, primarily, upon successes of Russia as the core of the Russian World, upon strengthening its position in adequate terms with the first line of our National Hymn.


Buyanov Valery
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BASHFUL LIBERALS’ GAMES:

Comments on the Democracy: Developing the Russian Model Report made up in the Political Technologies Center by the Institute’s of Modern Development request

1. The Report authors, for some unclear reasons, take no heed of the experience of real developing the real democracy that has become the outcome of the President’s-in-the-office Putin participation in the parliamentary elections, in role of the leader of a political party. In fact, this experience is attractive by its being but a shy step along the way to the premier-presidential model. It is clear, this experience contradicts the Report authors’ initial point, their idea of the strong state power has to be just the presidential one in Russia, but still, both theoretically and practically, it cannot be excluded that to provide the nation’s moral leader with the premier power might become a political practice.
2. The Report authors are right to state, ‘the Russians pattern their behaviors on Europe being the civilization model’ (including in the organizing their political life). But that means, the Russians - and first of all the young, active, talented Russians – value their country’s merit and quality by the quality and maturity of our political life. One of most active participants in the discussions from the audience has privately told me that the number of his friends who wished to leave the country has increased after our elective cycle of 2007 - 2008.
3. As follows from the above formulated long-term modernization objectives, it is the presidential power - and just it - can set the vector to involve wider strata of the society (primarily, the middle class) into transformative activities, to change accents in the economic model on innovative industries, thus stimulating entrepreneurship.


Tsipko Alexander
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THE RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN CRISIS (JANUARY-AUGUST 2008):

1. The USA, as always, have got to an authoritarianism trap – to replace gone too far the leader now accused of war crimes, it has appeared it is impossible. Authoritarianism does not suffer political competitors and a political field of Georgia it has appeared "smoothed out" not only for Moscow, but also for Washington. Using analogies to authoritative modes on the post-Soviet territory and marking a certain authoritative trend in the politician M.Saakashvili, it is possible to draw a cautious conclusion that if the president of Georgia will manage to reserve support of Washington to its power on while threatens nothing.
2. End of operations in South Ossetia is a certain boundary not only in Russian – the Georgian relations, but also in creation of a new geopolitical reality on the post-Soviet territory. Already from the beginning of 2000th years gradual restoration of political-economical power of Russia objectively and all influenced structure of the mutual relations which have developed in 90th years on open spaces CIS and in Baltic at direct participation of the USA, EU and the NATO more intensively.
3. Georgia for modern Russia has no Strategic value. Russia does not wait for full-scale aggression from outside Transcaucasia. Rendering possibilities through Georgia supports to separatists in the North Caucasus are limited, but exist, so the problem of safety of our southern boundaries long time will remain actual, but not in that degree that Russia to incur certain political and economic obligations concerning Tbilisi. Occupation which will automatically assign to Russia for well-being of the population of Georgia is senseless also.
4. The demand of the Antirussian policy in Transcaucasia where the West is consistently occupied by designing of South Caucasian power transit "corridor" alternative to Russia, to a certain stage will provide preservation for M.Saakashvili roles of "ally" of Washington after defeat in South Ossetia.


Suzdaltsev Andrey
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ISLAMISM: THE THIRD STAGE OF THE DECOLONIZATION MISSILE?:

1. The ‘civilization war’ is principally contra to the interests of ruling elites of all the developing countries without exception. They not just cannot and have no wish to break up from the West, but on the contrarily, they are interested in better and more favorable ways of entering the world capitalist economy, where the West sets tone. The Third World ruling classes for a time have long ago forgotten the ideas ‘alternative development’, be that the Nasser-type “national socialism”, or Kaddaffi’s “the third way”, or Imam Khomeini’s “the blessed Islamic economy”. They understand that the militant ‘Islamism’ would plunge their countries into a precipice of isolation and full disorder.
2. “The third stage of the missile” of anti-colonial struggle is a myth. At that, an extremely dangerous myth, threatening the stability in today's world to much greater extent than anything else. Globalization has provided the Islamic extremists with such means of destabilization and creating explosive situations that the terrorists, nihilists and anarchists of old times did not dear to dream of. The Islamic terror, provoking their victims to retaliate using the force, might boomerang in monstrous blow upon the Muslim world itself. That could bring in catastrophic consequences even in those parts of the planet that are not yet involved in the increasing confrontation between the Muslim extremism and the American superpower unilateralism.
3. The dramatic violent actions, kindling of hatred, intolerance and irreconcilability, calls to ruthless fight against the enemies of the faith - all that can just damage the natural process of the adapting the traditional values of the Orient to the realities of the modern world that had made a great leap forward from the times of stagnant and sclerotic religious dogmatism. There is no place here for any rocket stunning one’s imagination, the decisive thing is the persistent day-to-day labor inspired by idea of cooperation and mutual enrichment of civilizations, the idea that rejects civilization collisions and “battle of the incompatible worlds”.


Mirsky Georgy
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THE PREVENTION OF TERROR THREAT IN THE SOUTH CHINESE SEA: PROSPECTS OF THE RUSSIAN PARTICIPATION:

1. Among the experts and scholars, the viewpoint prevails that the international terror threat is actual, in main, for the Near and Middle East countries. Recently, however, the problem has become increasingly important as a state’s priority in other regions, in particular, in the South-East Asia (SEA), as well as for the Associations of the South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN).
2. After the 1997-98 financial crisis, the Russia-ASEAN cooperation had noticeably reduced, for the both sides confined themselves to solving the internal problems. Just in the first years of the 21st century, there were signs of some activities. Thus, the leaders of the ASEAN and Russian Federation sighed some documents (2003-2004) that stated their readiness to expand contacts, in main, along the line of the cooperation in fighting the international terrorism. At that, Russia has joined the ASEAN Treaty on Friendship and Cooperation.
3. Lately, there is a certain progress in the Russia-ASEAN relations. The number of high-ranking visits increase, the infrastructure of political dialogue is building up, the contacts between the business communities become stronger, mechanisms of expanding the humanitarian contacts are developed, their commitment legal base is improved. For instance, in 2007, the Financial Foundation on Dialogue Partnership was established, the Russia-ASEAN Educational Center was set up, some priority projects of cooperation were defined.
4. Thus, despite some major-toned statements made by officials and in joint Russia-ASEAN declarations, currently, their interactivities in preventing acts of terror in the South China Sea can hardly be seen as dynamic and effective. And it is likely, optimizing the cooperation would be confronted with serious difficulties.


Kanayev Yevgeny
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THE IRAQI FUEL & ENERGY COMPLEX (FEC) AS A SMALL ‘INSTABILITY ISLAND’ FOR THE RUSSIAN INVESTMENTS:

1. In mid-term prospect, the economic risks (despite the Iraqi Government’s rather good reports on the achievements in fiscal and financial spheres) are subjected to significant influence of the political factors. For the domestic investors, it seems, the main reference point of improving economic situation in the country should be the Iraqi Government’s plans to implement the massive investment program to restore the home economy. Nowadays, these plans have been postponed due to the extremely complex military-political situation and high risks in the security sphere.
2. In Iraq, the investment climate is defined as the extremely unfavorable. The general situation in the country is noted for a high level of unpredictability in short-term prospect. Decisive for the further development of the situation would be the factors related to the struggle of foreign powers for spheres of influence, and the military-political circumstances concerning the Iraqi internal affairs, which are by now tend to split and fragment the Iraqi society into isolated groupings, inspired by some narrow ethnic and religious interests.
3. Under the conditions of political and legal vacuum, the economy of Iraq has fully turned out to become the hostage of the intestine strife. Though this non-stop-in-crisis Mid-East oil Eldorado, the ‘black gold’ of which is being hunted for by the energy ‘heavyweights’ from many countries, is unlikely threatened with any upheavals. For even before the American-British occupation, the Iraqi economy suffered a great deal because of prolonged rigid sanctions.


Kasayev Eldar
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THE ARCTIC ENERGY: PARTNERSHIP OF RUSSIA, GERMANY AND THE EUROPE:

1. Presently, developing the Arctic Zone has coincided with the world economic trend towards the system crisis caused, in many respects, as President Medvedev said at the XII St.-Petersburg International Economic Forum, by the “economic egotism” and “economic nationalism”, primarily - the USA. Later on, Dmitry Medvedev's speech at the Forum, by the analogy with the meaningful statement by President Putin, was called the "economic Munich”. One may just guess of those geopolitical moves that would accompany the changes in economy, technology and power engineering. Some countries’, regions’ and the industrial companies’ of narrow specialization oil-and-gas foundations of well-being might disappear. The insurance is needed.
2. Now new principles and documents on EU-Russia interrelations are being worked out. Russia justifies its refusal to ratify the EU Energy Charter by the losses in oil-and-gas sector and weak representation in the European nuclear fuel market. And this is when the world is obviously facing kind of nuclear ‘Renaissance’ in power maintenance for various evenings-out of the consequences of the world economic crisis. It is enough to recollect the collective appeals, made by the G8 energy ministers (2006-08), to quickly develop the "peaceful atom”. Probably, the achievements of France in this sphere would be used as a guideline.
3. It is convenient time for new initiatives now. The aggravation in the EU-Russia interrelations on the eve of the Helsinki summit have corrected the balance of all-European issues under the discussion there and the “Northern Dimension” in favor of the regional ones. The EU-Russia-Iceland-Norway meeting put forward the updated program. In 2007, NATO supported the new “Northern Dimension”. In Russia’s relations with Europe, the pattern of bilateral contacts with member-countries would be domineering for some time. The all-European integration might be additionally weakened due to raise of ethnic separatism, hardships in the economy and proactive terrorism. Symptoms of easing – Blocking ‘the EU Constitution’ by some member-states are the symptom of weakening.


Komleva Elena
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THE ECONOMIC SECURITY IN THE POST-SOVIET SPACE:

1. The economy of the post-Soviet space becomes the factor of primarily concern when the post-Soviet space integration is involved, that which determines the dynamics of integration and Russia’s influence, by means of some economic sanctions, on the former USSR constituent countries. Today, Russia is a factual part of the world economic system, so it is involved in globalization and post-modernization of economy. To this effect, the network is being made with technological, information and socio-political sectors among others. All this is a challenge for Russia, which it should cease to ignore and bring about the civilized answer.
2. We have general single task while addressing the abovementioned and other similar situations - to go on with integrating the post-Soviet space economically. The next step is to introduce the single space into the global economic network, while having preserved the sovereign control over it. Our geopolitical opponents’ task is to integrate it into the global space part by part, with loss of the sovereignty and control. In this case, the terrorism and other forms would become our rival’s tool.
3. There are forces that equally wish either to close Russia up in isolation, or to integrate it into a world network with no means of control left. It is not that the Americans are bad guys. They just cannot let Russia control its part of the global network; that is why, to them, we are good just in the form of small nationalist chauvinistic entity, which by itself pushes away all its allies, or in the form of an obedient (to them), no-problem segment of the global world network. To them, there is no a third way, but is the third way that is right for Russia’s destiny – both integrating into the world economy and preserving the full strategic control over its segment in the post-Soviet space.


Dougin Alexander
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THE EURASIAN DISCOURSE OF THE RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICS:

1. The world power configuration under the US dominance that has developed after the Third World War, nevertheless seems to be transitive. Its subsequent outlines would become clearer while the American project of reorganizing the world is being realized, with the USSR repartition, subdividing Yugoslavia, the war in Iraq and its breaking, lunge to Afghanistan being just the first stage of the US global military-political operation. Washington, despite the obvious failures of its offensive in the Eurasian front, is determined to bring it to the logical ending, for one seemed to be inexcusably stupid not to take advantage of the opportunities given by the history itself.
2. Eurasia, where the majority of the mankind lives and where the bulk of the planet’s business activity is concentrated, gradually becomes the world economy centre of attraction. Russia, despite the deep crisis it suffers, still is the only and unique leader-state in all the post-Soviet space. Some analysts think, the condition of turmoil that had been cyclically repeating for all along its thousand-year history, and which Russia nowadays stays in, has not reached the ultimate stage yet.
3. Moscow is in need for a effective geopolitical policy line, some new political role with no birthmarks of the Soviet experience repeated, sprang out of internal needs and objectively developing world realities. Such a role, or rather, with no exaggeration, Russia’s historical mission is shown through the recently introduced new Eurasian strategy as the long-term, many-staged geopolitical project. It is prompted by strategic realism and by the fact that the USA, with all its advantages, have one structural problem – it is geographically far away from Eurasia.


Agayev Rasim (Azerbaijan)
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