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№29 (3-2007) "VESTNIK ANALITIKI":
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CONTENTS
EDITOR’S PAGE
Vagif Guseynov
PRESSING TOPIC: EXPRESS-ANALYSIS
About political situation before parliamentary elections
Dmitry Oreshkin.Two big ones and three small ones
POLITICS
«500 words»
Oleg Nickitin. About rubric in brief
Foreign correspondents on the situation in Russia and in the world
David Satter (USA). Three questions on Russia
Pavel Gurevich. On both sides of good and evil. Collective unconscious and the political processes.
Anatoly Nelyubin. The social state in Russia: the essence and ways of forming
Valery Sidorov. Under the yoke of "being occupied"
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Eberhard Schneider (Germany). The future of the European Union constitution
Sami Andoura (Belgium). Towards a new agreement between Russia and the European Union
Jayantha Dhanapala (Sri-Lanka).Counteracting the proliferation and the role of the UN security Council
Rasim Agayev (Azerbaijan). Iran: the national factor
NATIONAL SECURITY
Anatoly Tsyganok. The Israeli-Lebanese 2006 war examined by a Russian analyst
Alexey Maltzev, Dmitry Manuilsky. NS utilization in the Russian North-East: Russian-British cooperation experience and prospects
IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION
Vladimir Dergachev (Ukraine). The "anaconda noose" of democracy: new boundaries of the Eurasian geopolitics
Alexander Svechnikov. The prospects of ecologizing the international relations and politics.
CIS
Roy Medvedev. Kazakhstan economy's various dimensions.
MASS MEDIA
Dmitry Martynov, Alexey Os'kin. Problems of the Russian regional press.
INTERNATIONAL SCIENTIFIC TRAINING CONFERENCE
«The Black sea cooperation: towards the partnership of the 21st century»
The information block
PUBLICATIONS
Unlearned lessons
Afrand Dashdamirov. The Karabakh conflict in the context of perestroika. The third party in the conflict (Continuation).
NOTES ON A BOOK'S MARGINS
Elvira Spirova. Politics as the social prosthesis
On Jean Baudrillard. The Transparency of the Evil. М.: Dobrosvet Publishers, 2006, 258 pp.
Books that Might Be of Interest
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EDITOR’S PAGE:
1.Obvious predefiniteness of results of elections, idea about which within all year meaningly took root politicians into public consciousness, indicative rigidity of authorities under the attitude even to rather shy attempts of opposition to generate a certain alternative field on a political landscape, undoubtedly, testifies that the ruling elite is extremely concerned future after "changing of the guard".
2.The world varies, and the problems born under influence of global processes and shown absolutely unequally in various social systems, more often and are solved in different ways, according to representations of a management existing in these systems and elites about the place and a role in the world, ways of development, values, interests.
3.Real dialogue between the West and Russia does not exist. For Russia the successful foreign policy consists in rapproachement between Russia and the CIS countries, for the West - on the contrary, in a distance of the CIS countries from Russia. However the USA, EU and Russia at necessary efforts can find ways and forms of co-operation. Whether there will be this selective or strategic partnership, will show the future depending on desire of the parties to create the general platform of joint actions.
Guseinov Vagif
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TWO BIG ONES AND THREE SMALL ONES:
1.On the eve of the Duma elections, the Unified Russia party and its lobbyists in the Kremlin feel discomfort, comprehending the actual system failure. With the party's strategic task to strengthen the governance vertical line, the local/regional bureaucracies ought not be challenged with the choice inconceivable for them - who of the bosses to work for. There is to be just one governance party, like in the Soviet times. And the local/regional administrators are to clearly understand that it is its final result they would have to guarantee with their own heads. With this comprehension of the political moment, the Unified Russia went in to the attack on its the closest competitor.
2.The project of the bipartisan controlled democracy, facing the actual problem of splitting the vertical authorities, means to go back to old one-party model used in the former countries of people's democracy, when the single chief leading force was decorated with the ornamental parties-satellites. On the other hand, the Unified Russia's political interests, that aspire to the monopoly inside the 'vertical line', fail to meet the Kremlin's broad interests. Gryzlov would, certainly, promise a convincing victory, particularly with the administrative support concentrated at it< but there has to be a spare option. It is called Sergey Mironov.
3.To the democratic wing, the key question is, which position would be more appealing to the electorate: the rigid anti-Putin one performed by the Yabloko, or the compromising one arranged by the Union of Right Forces. As to the local/regional administrative resource, it would unlikely risk to support the Liberals. Though, the heavier the pressure of the centralizers from Moscow is, the more desperate the province might react.
Oreshkin Dmitry
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THREE QUESTIONS ON RUSSIA:
1.The victory of the communist ideas led to the defeat of all those who opposed the notion of the state’s superiority. The result is that Russia has come to be a country with no spiritual pivot, nor limiters capable to moderate the appetite of both individuals and the state. The society is deprived of the moral imperatives' beneficial influence, there is no reliable instrument to determine the truth and justice. The lack of the ethical transcendence is felt in every sphere of life - from the characteristics of the Russians' everyday living up to specifics of realizing the foreign policy.
2.The lack of the ethical transcendence and excessive dominance of the individual by the state works against Russia’s emergence as a great power because it dooms Russia, in the long run, to demodernization. The rule of the country by the state bureaucracy without the participation of independent institutions or middle class will not ensure its stable growth. On the contrary, it can only intensify the power of corruption and criminalization of the economy.
3.Russia is a part of the Judaeo-Christian civilization and its future is with the West. To become a part of the West, however, Russia must recognize the authority of ethical transcendence. The establishment of universal values would put an end to the individual-state opposition, ending the imbalance between the status of the former and the prerogatives of the latter. This will not be easy for Russia but it is the only way to rescue Russia from a future of authoritarianism and stagnation.
David Satter (USA)
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ON BOTH SIDES OF GOOD AND EVIL:
1.Russia has stepped upon the road of man-caused disasters. Every day, there are fires, explosions, falling planes, mine accidents, train crashes. The social contrasts are becoming increasingly obvious. The years to come will not be cloudless for the country. No great power nor civilization would assist Russia to survive and develop. On the contrary, many a power would like to inflict some serious damage upon us. These are the long-term tendencies, so there is need to count algorithms of our own actions. First of all, it is a matter of elevating the peoples' standard of living. "We are all living beyond the poverty line, but just on the different sides of it", a satirist observed.
2.The overall consent, which the public consciousness demonstrates, has different meanings. As the consensus means to presume, the society is either developing well, or stagnating well, or dieing well. When Thukydides was looking for the answer in the thirty years of Peloponnesian War, he, allowing himself a medical view, examined wounds, analyzed the process of the conqueror's decay, studied rotting the Greek civilization from the days of wars between the city-states till the civil war in its deepest madness. Do we need this kind of soberness of mind?
3.Half-a-century experience in studying the evolution of the mankind permits me to make four important conclusions. First of all, the principal condition to maintain the development is the macroeconomic stability. On the other hand, it is important to focus the economic growth directly on satisfying needs of the population. To launch the real development, the overall process is required - to take just the political measures would be insufficient. The fourth conclusion deals with public institutions: the steady economic development is possible, only when it is based on the processes with the broad populace participation.
Gurevich Pavel
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THE SOCIAL STATE IN RUSSIA: THE ESSENCE AND WAYS OF FORMING:
1.Social State is a complex public phenomenon that is the object of interdisciplinary researches. Of course, the politologists are primarily to consider a certain type of State structure, while the economists consider mechanisms of the national income redistribution, and the legal experts analyze and develop laws, problems of legal ensuring the citizens' social rights, etc.
2.As the history testifies, creating or developing Social State is based on two main foundations - democracy with its state and civil institutions and market economy with its mechanisms. In the world, there often occurs change of the neo-Liberal approach towards maintaining and developing Social State for the Social-Democratic (paternalistic) one. The 2007 presidential elections in France is a vivid example.
3.It is important not just to introduce the democratic ways of the major state decision-making with the institutions of civil society participating in it, but to secure the expansion of the freedom of mass media and criticism of the negative aspects in the life of the society and violations of the citizens' social rights. In the Russian society, there is an increasingly vigorous discussion on restoration of social justice, the State is being grudged for not providing for it.
4.The State, as a rule, serves to express and protect the interests of economically, politically and ideologically dominating strata of the society. The middle class is such a stratum in the majority of the developed countries that gives voice to the vital interests of the overwhelming majority of the population. In Russia, the middle class is still undeveloped and has no real social force of influence.
Nelyubin Anatoly
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UNDER THE YOKE OF "BEING OCCUPIED":
1.Our former Socialist Camp partners are eager to remind of the offences and injustices done by the Soviet power to their peoples, but they diligently avoid mentioning the fact, that the Stalinism, guided with the perverted ideas of Socialist Construction, used terror not against the Ukrainians or the Balts, Hungarians or Czechs, Kalmyks or Crimean Tatars - not against any nationality in the Soviet Union.
2.Neither the Russian Empire, nor Soviet Union has ever won new territories with the conquistador sword. We have always used such a tool as the cultural assimilation with smaller nations. This is true for the history of Russia-Lithuania relations, too. Our history textbooks give insufficiently little information on the history of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania that would be fair to call the Russo-Lithuanian state.
3.The USSR, unlikely to the Czarist Russia, was not the 'prison of nations'. It became the 'prison of nations' under the Stalin regime, its people has been deprived of civil rights and destroyed by poverty under Khruschev and Brezhnev, but that has noting to do with the national aspect. The USSR was a head over the other great empires as far as advancing the backward indigenous nations towards the modern civilization was concerned. Yes, it was the empire, but of the kind where the Center was feeding and developing the periphery provinces at its own.
Sidorov Valery
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THE FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION CONSTITUTION:
1.In 2002/03, the 105-member constitutional convent was held (56 representatives of the national parliaments, 16 deputies to the European Parliament, 28 Board members, two members of the European Commission and the President of the convent with the two vice-presidents), with representative observers from ten countries admitted to enter the EU and three applicants to accession. Even then, it was suggested to rename the EU into the United States of Europe.
2.The summit of the EU 27 presidents and heads of government held in Brussels on June 23, 2007, after 36-hour negotiations under the German Presidency, have reached the compromise on the constitution. Some points are to be specified by the governmental conference that has to be concluded by the end of this year. Then the treaty on the principal provisions should be approved by the parliaments of all the EU member-states, prior to the June 2009 European Parliament elections.
3.The Brussels compromise gave the EU Constitutions another design, though, in general, preserved its substance (Angela Merkel). It became clear, the EU, even in its 27-strong capacity, still is capable to act and make decisions. Institutionally, the EU has formed to allow other countries to enter, after the treaty on principal provisions will come into force. Henceforth, the Union should not be busy with itself, but rather concentrate upon the political content.
Eberhard Schneider (Germany)
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TOWARDS A NEW AGREEMENT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND THE EUROPEAN UNION:
1.The Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) concluded for an initial period of ten years that ends in November 2007, forms the contractual basis of EU-Russian relations. For now, the parties have agreed to allow the PCA to continue after the ten year period expires (this occurs automatically unless either side takes steps). When considering the post-2007 relationship, the two sides apparently agreed to negotiate and conclude a new bilateral agreement to replace the PCA.
2.The EU aims for a deep and comprehensive treaty with Russia. The EU has already concluded many such agreements, notably with most neighbouring countries. Indeed, the PCA is itself an example of such an agreement, although the level of commitments is relatively low in most policy areas when compared with most similarly structured agreements between the EU and other neighbouring countries. A new comprehensive treaty will also force the EU and Russia to confront yet again the contentious and divisive issues raised in the negotiation of the four Road Maps on the common spaces but avoided in the final outcome.
3.The EU and Russia are faced with difficult and lengthy negotiation and ratification processes before a new comprehensive bilateral agreement to replace the PCA can enter into force. Such difficulty has been illustrated in the process of launching negotiations on a new agreement with the Polish veto. Last but not least, after almost one year of blockage, the EU has not been able to resolve the disagreements sparked by Poland’s veto. The concept of solidarity between EU member states, at the heart of the European integration process since the beginning, will need to be addressed once more in order to appease state(s) reluctant to open the looked-for negotiations and get through the current crisis in EU-Russia relations.
Sami Andoura (Belgium)
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COUNTERACTING THE PROLIFERATION AND THE ROLE OF THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL:
1.Counteracting the proliferation is the most active policy of proliferation deterrence. The concept of active counter-measures to stop proliferation was put forward by president George Bush administration. Though the US Department of Defense has used the term of 'counteracting the proliferation' during the first Bill Clinton's presidency.
2.The world community already has a wide spectrum of means to peacefully solve the problems of preventing proliferation of the weapons of mass destruction (WMD) by nations and non-nation actors. These preventive measures reduce the risk for the population to the smaller level, than pre-emptive military actions aimed at liquidation of WMD objects. It is quite possible to strengthen the treaties terms and to block all the 'loopholes'.
3.Thus, counteraction measures to fulfill the 'protection duties' ought to be executed by the Security Council only, or in accordance with the respective UN Security Council, and should be aimed at eliminating the threat of using the WMD that come from nations and non-nation actors. At the same time, it is necessary to go further along the way of liquidating all the WMD stocks in any countries in order to firmly guarantee the non-proliferation of the WMD.
Jayantha Dhanapala(Sri-Lanka)
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IRAN: THE NATIONAL FACTOR:
1.The US-led international community still could not find out effective means to keep in check the nuclear ambitions of the Islamic state, that is becoming increasingly influential in the regional affairs and strategically. The Islamic Republic of Iran's nuclear program gives a serious ground for the international anxiety, though it is not the only reason of the USA-IRI conflict that, for the time-being, has not yet passed onto the phase of an open armed invasion, just because of the problems originated in the Iraq war, which many American politicians perceived as disastrous long ago.
2.Iran remains not just the most important ideological and political anti-American obstacle, but also, obviously, the military one in the way of the US further penetration into the Eurasian spaces. Iran, in a way, prevents to close the geopolitical chain of well-disposed countries that form the bridgehead of a sort, from which the USA, having consolidated its grip upon it, might take under its control such energy resources and transcontinental communications that would add to the US potential something greater, than the status of the only world superpower.
3.The geopolitical realities are the such, the USA would very unlikely reconcile to strengthening the Iranian positions globally, and thus it is inevitable for the USA-IRI conflict to be aggravated periodically. At the moment, military invasion of the Iraqi type is unlikely to happen. More foreseeable is the policy of making the clerical state wobbly from within. But to do so, the single Azerbaijan factor does not seem to be enough at all. The Azerbaijan nationalism, and the nation as a whole, proved to become badly undermined, having found no optimal solutions under the conditions of Islamization, on the one hand, and the external threats due to the USSR disintegration, on the other hand.
Agayev Rasim (Azerbaijan)
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