1. The scenario approach is known to be a necessary component of the strategic foreign policy planning. Scenario thinking enables to rather effectively control tens of the major factors influencing development of crises and conflicts. As a rule, a man is capable to simultaneously operate with 5 to 7 factors only. Besides, the scenario approach allows to substantially improve selection and the analysis of event catenae. Finally, having an appropriate scenario is the necessary prerequisite for developing the strategic thinking, applying the reflective strategies, game models, etc. in dynamic conflict zones, such as, for instance, the Middle East.
2. As it is known, since the mid-1950s, the balance of forces in the Middle East was determined, primarily, by the antagonism between the USSR and USA. Later on, when Russia gave up protecting its strategic interests, the balance of forces in the Middle East has been destroyed. For almost two decades, the United States did had a sort of global carte blanche to put its Mid-Eastern strategy into practice. But Washington failed to put the whole under its control. Moreover, the American Mid-Eastern policy has led to substantial strengthening of the political Islam in the region.
3. In the past 5 to 7 years, the fundamentally new balance of forces has finally established and boldly enough structured in the Middle East. The basic confrontational line divides two de facto brought into being military-political unions opposing each other. On the one hand, it is the so-called Northern Alliance - Iran, Syria, HAMAS, Hezbollah. It is opposed by the so-called Pro-Western Coalition - the USA, Israel, Egypt, the Palestinian Autonomy Administration. To some or another extent, the first alliance are supported by Russia, China, Turkey, Libya, Qatar, Algeria, Sudan, Venezuela, Bolivia, as well as hundreds anti-globalist and thousands of Muslim organizations and movements all over the world. The second alliance are in touch with the majority of the NATO member-states.