GEOPOLITICS AT WORK: THE RUSSIAN-GEORGIAN CONFLICT
NUMBER of MAGAZINE: 36 (2) 2009ã.
The HEADING: GEOPOLITICS
AUTHORS: Peter Schultze (Germany)
1. As the conflict in the South Ossetia proved, the policy of balancing on the brink of war Saakashvili used in his relations with the rebellious regions has gone in the past forever. Still, the Kremlin has not met its major goal in this war as well – the war was not resulted in Saakashili overthrowing. Besides, it became obvious that the completion of the "hot" stage of the conflict would be followed with the West’s making everything possible to protect Tbilisi against the threat from outside. 2. To prove its right to carry out some independent policy Moscow needed a convincing victory, an impressive move towards any the CIS member-state, even under the condition of unpredictability of the reaction on the part of the West. Russia were to demonstrate to these states that the USA would be of no help to them, while Russia, having overcome its many-year disregard of the international problems, was willing to stand for its interests within the post-Soviet space. 3. The Caucasian conflict has also shown the geopolitical possibilities of the three major players, the EU, Russia, and the USA. At their dramatic divergences in motivations and interests, the behavior of the parties during the conflict predetermined to some degree those changes in the world alignment of forces that give ground to some suggestions on how the multi-polar world is to come functioning in the future, at least, as far as the European dimension is concerned.
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