IRAN AND THE USA
NUMBER of MAGAZINE: 34 (4) 2008ã.
The HEADING: FOREIGN AFFAIRS
AUTHORS: Mirsky Georgy
1. A possibility of Iran turning up as a nuclear power brings about some sort of international crisis. If the worst scenario were to develop, it could provoke some large-scale conflict. At that, one of the major actors, alongside with Iran itself, is the United States. This article aimed at analyzing the Iran-US relations, including the following aspects: the American Administration’s interests in the context of preventing Iran’s nuclear armament; the Iranian leadership’s hypothetical goals and problems; chances to diplomatically settle the conflict; the optional conflict escalating right up to use of force. 2. In fact, the relation between the USA and Iran were adversary as early as after the victory of ‘the Islamic Revolution’ and ‘the hostages affair’. Though after the war with Iraq that bled Iran white and Teheran’s Islamic expansion obviously having faded, American Administration calmed down, but it went on to see the very existence of militant, radical, anti-Western regime in Iran as a potential threat to the order the United States considered mostly favorable to their interests in the Middle East region. When, late in 1990s, the protest moods overran the Iranian society and Khatami was elected President, the US saw that as favorable indications that the of the clerical dictatorship started withering away. 3. There are three scenarios for the events to develop: either the USA, jointly with Europe and, if there was luck, with other members of the world community, would exert all the efforts to force Iran, by means of diplomatic pressure, to abandon uranium enrichment works and stop the attempts to acquire the nuclear weapon; or, if that failed, would try to organize isolation, blockade of Iran in order to punish it with economic sanctions and still force it to concede; or they would recognize the failure of all attempts to bring pressure upon Iran and reconcile to the thought it had become another nuclear power.
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