1. The US and their allies' invasion into Afghanistan resulted in liquidation of the Taliban regime that was hostile to Iran and kept the situation in the country under control. That, in turn, led to a sharp increase of Tehran's influence over its northern neighbor. The fact is, a number of clan groupings that came back to hold there positions under the conditions of the occupation, had had close ties with the Iranian special services, ever since the Soviet presence in Afghanistan. Besides, Tehran has always had strong positions among the religiously kindred khazareans, who live close to the Iranian border.
2. Stability in the Gulf region has been traditionally supported within Iran - Iraq - Saudi Arabia triangle. Thus, in the context of opposing Tehran's strengthening positions, the Baghdad - Riyadh axis again began to be reinforced, since the late 1990s. The occupation of Iraq broke the balance, when the strongest country in the "triangle" was counter-balanced by the other two: Baghdad, having been a source of threats and potential rival, turned to become Tehran's ally.
3. Certain changes might occur in other parts of the front, for example, in Azerbaijan. While currently Azerbaijan develops according to the western model, which is acceptable both to the country's regime and its 'orange opposition', there are a number of factors potent to blow the situation up. First, there is no actual oil revenue distribution, with the social situation in the country permanently going down. Second, in fact, there are no opportunities for non-clans to grow. Third, there begin to develop the new anti-system Sunni opposition: in today's Azerbaijan, the religious practice is a political act at the same time.
4. The key struggle in the future Iran - US conflict develops in Tehran and Washington. As far as the United States concerns, it is a matter of the administration wanting to cover up its failures in Iraq. In this context, the Iranian issue is an apology. On the other hand, the neo-conservatives are active to put through the idea of necessity to inflict a strike upon Iran: i.e. to pretend that the changes in the Middle East were not a mistake, though the aim chosen was mistaken. Besides, the Democrats in the US Senate become more and more hard in their criticism of the Republicans, at that, troops withdrawal the election theme for both parties candidates for the presidency.