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RUS | ENG
WILL THERE BE A KURDISH STATE IN THE MIDDLE EAST?

NUMBER of MAGAZINE: 28 (2) 2007ã.
The HEADING: FOREIGN AFFAIRS
AUTHORS: Demidenko Sergey

1. By 2005, there loomed the distinct specter of forthcoming disintegration over Iraq. The Sunni-Shia contradictions have become exceedingly aggravated. The Shias, being the overwhelming populace majority, began to actively aspire to power, they won the parliamentary elections, in late 2005, have the control over the Prime-Ministership and the Ministry of Interior. The Sunnis, that were historically the leading political force in Iraq, had no wish to put up with the growing influence of the adversary sect.
2. At this political background, the Iraqi Kurds have made active efforts to expand the rights of their autonomy. Besides wider representation in the Parliament, the Iraqi Kurds achieved another serious success - Jalal Talabani was elected the President of Iraq.
3. In Iraq, because of weakness of the government, the official renovated Baghdad did not oppose the rise of the Kurdish 'separatism'. The country's officials went no further than to 'sharply condemn' the KDP and the PUK activities to dissect Iraq (the Iraqi Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki, for example, called 'illegal' Barzani's decision to create the Kurdish autonomy's own state symbols).
4. In perspective, the Kurdish quasi-state entity is to play an important geopolitical role. Upon the American withdrawal from Iraq, the power in its central provinces would be in hands of the Islamites. That would lead to appearance of the 'Islamite Belt' in the Near and Middle East, the base to export the 'Islamic Revolution', including the one into the Muslim regions of Russia. The Kurdish autonomy, together with the Tadjik and Uzbek populated areas of Afghanistan, would become the 'anti-Islamic' - a barrier in the way of global threat spreading from the Middle East.
5. One may assume, that in ten years the geopolitical situation would change, and the Iraqi Kurds would declare independence. But even then, the sovereign Iraqi Kurdistan would not become the realization of ideas of the whole people of creating their own state, being just the state for the Iraqi Kurds. The Iraqi Kurdistan could not provide with citizenship to all willing to obtain it. More likely, that would lead to enhanced struggle for their rights among the Kurds in Turkey, Syria, and Iran and would put up the regional problems at a new level of tension.



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